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Price trends (Hog and feed price trends and forecast of ASRA compensation in hog production)

Predict prices and prepare more accurate budgets: a tool for you.

Price trends is a simple Excel tool to establish the link between price of pork x, feed cost y, based on data from the operation and the ASRA (Farm Income Stabilization Insurance: FISI)compensation for the coming months and years.

Producers and management stakeholders whohave to cost out budget forecasts will find this tool gives them a consistent framework to workwith.
The tool gives price projections for pork, corn and soybean meal, and their overall impact onthe prices of feed for sows, piglets and hogs. The forecast covers the current year and thefollowing year, on a monthly basis for the next 12 months (cash budgets) as well as on anannual basis. These price forecasts are based on changes in the Chicago futures market. Theforecasts are updated quarterly to reflect market changes with the shortest possible delay.

In order to adapt prices to the situation of each particular swine operation, the grain and feedprice forecast are offered as indices; 2021 is the base year (index 100). This allows theoperation/company to use its 2021 average input price and multiply it by the index for thespecified period to obtain a price estimate for this period.

For example, if the swine operationpaid $330/t on average for its corn in 2021 and the 2022 index is 103, the company can budgetfor a price of $340/t for its corn in 2022 (i.e. $330/t x 103/100).

This tool uses price forecasts to calculate FISI compensation and applicable premiums.Calculations of compensation and dues are based on the application of the new FISI farrow-to-finish model costs, also called the basic
model, corresponding to all operations analysed forthe survey.

Price trends


The forecasts are updated quarterly to reflect market changes with the shortest possible delay.


This Pricing Trends and FISI Projections model gives you an estimate of what themarket prices for pork, feed and the ASRA compensation and premiums for 2022 and 2023 could be. But to do this, we apply the forecast price for 2022 and 2023 respectively on the known ASRA (FISI) 2017 model which is in force since January 1, 2019.


The quarterly publication Tendances des prix is available by subscription only. To view the rates for subscribing to Tendances des prix or for acombined subscription including Tendances des prix, Men$uel PORC et Valeur des stocks, please contact Johanne Nadeau by email.